Screenshot and Notes from 03-04
As you can see in my screen shot I failed to use my indicator when it showed clear triggers to exit on both the MACD and the AO on a 15min chart. The result was a nasty loss.
$BTU then proceeded to run today, 04-07, with a very nice 41.30% for a gain $1.40 a share.
With that information in hand I decided to take a look at the ticker from the standpoint of it being a multi-day swing trade and using the MACD as I am for $SKY $RADA $NADL, although I'm basing those trades off of a daily chart and not a 15min chart.
But even with a 15min chart the trade would be a completely different P/L.
If I were to have gotten in to the trade when the indicators gave a buy signal at roughly the $2.60 a share price range, with a $1,000 trade window (small account simulation) I would have been looking at a position size of 380 shares. At that entry price and holding over multiple days I would be sitting on gains of 83.85% and a profit of $828.40. Even if I had the same entry as Friday's in at $4.07 a share I'd be sitting on a gain of 17.44% gains and $269.80 in profits.
Granted, this is quarterbacking from the sidelines and after the move, but I am curious if the gains are more probable with a little more time in the trade, much like someone buying a bigger ticker like Amazon then holding for the market uptrend... this would just be on a smaller scale and most likely just during the initial pump/promotion/news/earnings.
Only way to know is to test it. Luckily that doesn't coast me as these are paper trades.