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Welcome to my blog. A lot has changed since I started this thing. I'm now trading live after about a year of paper trading and studying. Originally I had planned on starting part time and slowly growing my account but life has a funny way of changing your plans. I found myself at a crossroads of sorts and quickly realized that I was being given a once in a lifetime opportunity to pursue my goals. I took the leap and I'm not looking back. Follow me here and see the triumphs and the losses.

Updated (08-10-16)

I tend to look for momentum trades that I can hold for anywhere from a few hours to a few days. I usually take positions of $5k to $10k in size to allow larger gains on smaller percentages (it's easier to hit a 1% to 5% gain vs a 10% to 20%+ gainer) and I like to use a trailing stop.

This blog is a way for me to log my progress and to aid me in learning, I hope that you find it useful. Financial freedom isn't given, it is earned. So plant the seeds of education and grow your pennies!

Friday, May 27, 2016

Friday's Trading $ASX $PRGN

Yesterday I had placed a trade in $ASX shorting it from $5.75 with a hard stop at $5.91 just past the resistance level at $5.90. We had a morning spike instead of a panic and I was stopped out for a loss less than -3%. It did eventually fade back down to $5.78, but just not worth the re-entry at that point.



I didn't see much the rest of the day that I liked or if I did see something I was already past a decent technical entry.

Then I checked an old watch list and found that $PRGN had cracked the $1 level this week which was a major resistance level both technically and mentally. I found a decent breakdown level to enter and place a fairly large short position for over the weekend. That is a bit risky since it is a holiday weekend and sometimes news the following trading day can be a little crazy, but with this cracking the $1 level and now showing resistance at the $0.90 level I feel pretty good that this will continue to drop.

I still feel that it may fade back to the $0.25 level were the supernova started from, but not sure it will be a quick journey to get there so I'm looking to lock in profits and move on.

I'm giving this a little more breathing room and have a hard stop set a little above the $0.90 resistance at $1.05.




Thursday, May 26, 2016

Watch List for 05-27

ASX ~ 18% EOD, I’m short on this overnight from $5.75 with a tight stop set at $5.91 ($0.16). This had some merger type news today and climbed throughout the day. It has been in a sideways channel for a while however with the top at $5.90. That top level has now been tested 5 times with today’s failing to hold. My goal is to catch a fade tomorrow to $4.89 or even $4.40.

NERV ~ 233.33% EOD, Had positive phase 2 testing and gapped up in the opening before further climbing during the day. Has shown some fading into the EOD and A/H. I’m short bias and think this could come back down pretty quickly.

SGY ~ 36.73% EOD, This has had solid gains for a few days now and is showing signs that it may breakout over a multi-day level of .68 to .70.

HUSA ~ 31.60% EOD, Financials out, breaking out above .22 and could test .27 range if we continue to see momentum. I’d watch key resistance levels before going long as this could just be a dead cat bounce.

SKIS ~ 27% EOD, Financials and upgrade new, tested the resistance level at $4.56 but faded into the close. This could go either way but I’m more on the short bias side for it.

EBIO ~ 24.77% EOD, No current news to justify the move up, but had a nice run today breaking past the resistance level at $1.30. This may be a decent momentum play if the $1.30 continues to act as a support.

GLRI ~ 21% EOD, Financials, This is a former runner with runs that reached .38 and .66. The spikes are always short lived so this could just be a pop & drop. Either way may work but I’d be very cautious here.

ARP ~ 20.33% EOD, Financials, this has had several days of gains. There are several levels of resistance starting at $0.366 and going up to $0.60. I’d wait until momentum is confirmed by breakouts and solid supports.


GOGO ~ 16.35%, Contract win with airline, This had a nice move up on volume and the contract win as a catalyst. It does have some strong resistance to chew through at the $11.75 level which it tested at the HOD. If it isn’t able to crack that level it will likely get slapped back down to the $9.95 range before reversing and going to the retest.

Happy Trading
Follow me on Twitter @MateoHellionFollow me on Profit.ly @Alleywolf
Follow me on Profit.ly @PaperAccount

Wednesday, May 25, 2016

@AirplaneJane is a Loser & You Should Be Too!byPaperAccount

Okay that title is meant to be click bait... @AirplaneJane is not truly a loser, she appears to be the opposite to be honest.
The reason I used that as a title is that why reviewing her trades for this month I noticed a commonality with her losses. The majority of them are less than -1%. I think that is a big deal considering this month so far she has had 35 losing trades!
Basically if your losses don't look like this... You're truly losing.
She does have one big loss, but she explains herself in the exit comments and admits to breaking rules.

ps. Jane, Thanks for being transparent with your trading and a great inspiration to others.
 

Happy Trading
 
Follow me on Twitter @MateoHellion
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Tuesday, May 24, 2016

Watch List 05/25

FCX ~ 4.86% EOD +0.43% A/H, Long overnight after being alerted to the mid-day breakout at $11.58 and getting in at the multi-day breakout of $11.68. Looking see this test resistance at $11.98 and or crack $12.

NM ~ 51.04% EOD, Earnings winner beats by $0.29. Near a breakout of the $1 range with triple top resistance at the $1.68 level. This could run up between those two levels for a nice gain.

INNL ~ 47.82% EOD, news on two phase 3 studies as a positive catalyst. Next big resistance in the $13.90 range. This could gap up in the morning so if I were to go long it would be after the morning run and I’d look for a setup on the min to

PEIX ~ 20.56% EOD, Earnings news and just broke out from the $5.85 range with multi-day run up. If momentum continues a play to $7.68 to $8 range could be do-able.

Happy Trading

Follow me on Twitter @MateoHellion
Follow me on Profit.ly @Alleywolf

Follow me on Profit.ly @PaperAccount



Trading the Plan $KEYW

I sure wish $KEYW would have just exploded after the huge contract win with US Cyber Command because the profit would have been epic... and mostly because I was trading the plan.

But that said, I can take pride in the fact that even though this stock failed to run like I had wanted, my plan protected my trade and I was able to exit with a small gain and nail the HOD for the double top right before it faded.

I'm going to keep this on the watch list for a little while just in case it decides to run a couple days after the news.






Happy Trading

Follow me on Twitter @MateoHellion
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Follow me on Profit.ly @PaperAccount

Monday, May 23, 2016

Watch List 05-24

KEYW ~ 5.87% EOD, long overnight due to major multi-contract win worth $460m with US Cyber Command and multi-day breakout of the $8.50 resistance. Looking to sell into a run in the AM. Other news was released A/H that CFO was replaced by CFO with former defense contract experience.

XGTI ~ 96.51% EOD, missed on earning and appears to be fading. Could be a decent short if shares are to be found by the $0.1380 range. I doubt I’ll play this one.

BBEP ~ 68.92% EOD, almost traded this today and cancelled my limit order when I wasn’t going to get the price I was looking for @ $0.115 just above the breakout. Will watch for a potential play if it can crack today’s HOD and test $0.21.

SCON ~ 39.11% EOD, Earnings news and volume spike, does appear to have a double top on the 30min chart but if it can breakout past $0.30 and $0.32 levels there is nice upside potential to run.

WRES ~ 32.26% EOD, Earnings released, pending, this is a former runner so it can spike again. $0.18 and $0.20 are key levels that need to be broken for a real run.

CRDS ~ 30.79% EOD, no real news on this former runner. Going to watch the price action and see if this is being pumped.

CERE ~ 19.71% EOD, resent patent awards and product testing, if it can break out of the $0.2760 range it can potentially run to $0.30 or more.

CLRB ~ 17.97% EOD, Closed out my over the weekend long swing. Will continue to watch this to see if it can crack the $5 mark. If it can, we may see another $1 run up to $6. It seems overextended so this may be more risk than reward. On the short side, a crack of the $3 mark could push down quite a bit.


SOL ~ 15.45% EOD, Earnings, could breakout past the $1.45 level. It seems a little more choppy/undefined compared to other charts I’ve traded but a good play may materialize.

Happy Trading

Follow me on Twitter @MateoHellion
Follow me on Profit.ly @Alleywolf
Follow me on Profit.ly @PaperAccount

Back on Track $CLRB $PRNG $KEYW

My hold over the weekend of $CRLB worked out perfectly as it broke out and had a very strong morning spike. I was able to catch the meat of the move and netted a little over 23% gains.


I also to profits on my short swing of $PRGN that I had been holding for way too long. I was able to net a little over a 10% gain average with roughly $500 to add to my paper account. But the big earning here is the lesson of taking profits. At one point $PRGN was down in the $1.20 ranges which had me with over 30% gains average. I should have taken that and re-shorted to protect my profits. I didn't do that and was caught by an unexpected spike last week that slapped me back into the red. It faded in a few days and allowed me today exit, but I needed to have taken the profits earlier. Also, I was holding this too long in general because in a real trade I wouldn't be holding a short play as long as I did. Overall, a good lesson learned.


Lastly, I'm long overnight on $KEYW after being alerted to mid-day news of a major multi-contract win worth $460m with the US Cyber Command. News of the CFO changing to a new CFO who has defense experience also was released A/H though I'm not sure if it will have as much of a catalyst effect as the contract win. The contract wasn't the only reason I decided to buy this and hold overnight, the technicals looked good too. When I checked the charts I saw that it was breaking out of a multi-day resistance at $8.50 which to me signaled strength. It faded slightly at the EOD but still ended in the green with almost 6% gains.



Happy Trading

Follow me on Twitter @MateoHellion
Follow me on Profit.ly @Alleywolf
Follow me on Profit.ly @PaperAccount



Friday, May 20, 2016

(HTMM) Video 8 Overview: Get Faded in the Afternoon

Video 8 not only had some words of wisdom from Tim Sykes (T.S.), but Tim Grittani (T.G.) as well.

Near the beginning of the video T.S. mentioned that the short seller is responsible for paying out the dividend if you're shorting a dividend stock. This was an added cost that I had no idea existed. Weighing in the price of fees and other trading related costs is something that must be considered as it may add a lot of slippage to your profits.

T.S. again mentioned that it is okay to have a loss. But it isn't okay to let those losses grow, doubling down, and failing to cut losses... I'm still guilty of the not cutting losses.

T.S. also mentioned that it is easier to short stocks in the afternoon due to price action fading and patterns cracking mid-day.

There are 3 types of shorts that T.S. likes to do

  1. Into a morning panic if held from the night before, usually because the pattern has cracked and still shows weakness
  2. After the morning panic bounce
  3. Afternoon fades
The term Boom and Bust pattern was introduced and explained as a big run up followed by a big crash. This would cover supernovas that top and crash in a very short period of time.

T.S. suggested that anytime you are learning something new on trading that you should always start out trading small. Work your way into the bigger trades.

You should always be analyzing your trades. I'm doing this through the blog, twitter, profit.ly

T.S. talked about the risks behind shorting non-pennies and that they are more risky because you are dealing with real companies with real profits and real products. It isn't likely that you will see large drops because the overall market is bullish and wants real companies to succeed. 

Never let your losses kill your account or your confidence.

It was good to hear T.G. because he's one hell of a good trader and he's very open about his good trades and bad trades. It takes a lot of guts to put out your major losses, especially when they may be larger than the average American's yearly salary.

T.G. talked about his thoughts on risk reward and said it basically equals what is the chart saying, how much is he willing to lose.

He also explained that while "going for a ride" on a stock can lead to larger gains it can also lead to huge losses and the funds you have in the trade are not liquid and available for other trades that may be better opportunities. 

T.G. then went into tracking promoters and how he likes to get into a pump early for the ride up. I'm not as comfortable with this strategy so I didn't take a ton of notes on this portion of the video. 

A few key parts however was the need to be detailed with promoters because the misspelling of one letter can take you to a different promoter's website, etc. You can check the URL on the page as well as the disclaimers, I'm certain a WHOIS search could be helpful as well.

T.G. has set up a dump email that the promoter's are connected to. Basically he uses the dump email address when signing up for promoter lists. He then will scan the emails and see if multiple sites are emailing the same thing/promotion. Knowing which of the sites will email first will help with quicker entry times.

It was interesting and T.G. does a great job on his webinars, but the early promotion thing is a little too risky for me. I like the idea of shorting them because as T.S. has mentioned prior, you know the end game and that puts the odds more in your favor.

Stay tuned for the overview of video 9. I'm almost done with as well.

Follow me on twitter @MateoHellion

TGIF & I Don't Mean the Ticker!

Its days/weeks like this that make me regret posting every trade. It's hard to swallow your mistakes and put them out for the world to see. I'd much rather share with you only the wins...

But that isn't right and it won't help me grow as a trader nor build trust with those who read my posts. 

The transparency preponderant to Tim Sykes teachings is key.

So with that said, I have to admit that I ended the week horribly. In fact, this week is likely the worse trading week I've ever had with four large losing trade and even worse, I willingly broke rules and did pretty much everything Tim advises you not to do.

I forced trades, used market orders, failed to cut losses, failed to use chart levels, gave in to FOMO, didn't pay much attention if the stocks were contract winners or earnings winners... and I'm sure there is more.

I'm going to study and really do everything possible to focus on better trades and sticking to the rules.

This week is exactly why I am paper trading. I truly need to focus on the fundamentals and become consistent with my trades and following the rules.

Here's the review of my loss in $LINE today


Thursday, May 19, 2016

Watch List 05-20

KOOL, 79% EOD, 3.61, publishing data on drug, ideal is breakout above $4

LINE, 48% EOD, .15, notice of delisting, debt swap, look for breakout above $0.16

AQMS, 28% EOD, 10.06, Interstate Battery Co investing $10m in common stock. Watch for long positon if it breaks today’s HOD.

LNCO, 26% EOD, .12, sympathy play with $LINE, look for breakouts above $0.15 and $0.18.

NSPR, 20% EOD, .41, paid promotion, unknown amount for promotion, look for breakout above $0.43 as it could run to $0.50

CAPN, 19% EOD, 1.30, financials released, no big news, it broke past the $1.29 resistance so watch if it turns into a support.

ULTR, 17% EOD, .31, no new news, watch for breakout above $0.38

RADA, 13% EOD, .42, financial restructuring, has spiked in the past, might be a challenge to find a good entry point


LCLP, first red day on this paid pump. TOS doesn't have shares the short, other wise I'd take a small position and play it out.

Trading Stupid, Another Red Day $KOOL $XGTI $GBSN $PRGN

Today was filled with frustration and I'm the one who gets to own it. I had bad entries, failed to cut losses, revenge traded, experienced FOMO, forced a trade, even used a market order to get in vs a limit.

Basically I relapsed to my old ways and managed to slap my paper account to a loss of -$2k.

So rather than just screenshot the chart and show what I did, I thought I'd force myself to see the difference between trading stupid and trading smart.

Below are a couple of examples. I may do the end of day charts like this from here on out. I think it will be helpful to me.




Wednesday, May 18, 2016

An Epic Tim Rant $MGT





Watch List for 05-19

GBSN ~ 110% @ EOD, Long 2k shares. Huge run, looking to ride momentum and sell into AM, target of 5% to 20% gains.

HERO ~ -6% @ EOD, Short 1k shares. 1st red day after multi-day run. Goal is 5% to 10% gains.

XGTI ~ 40% @EOD. Broke out of the $0.11 resistance, looks like possible coming breakout at $0.12. Could run to $0.14.

CSLT ~ 26% @ EOD. Strategic alliance aka merger, break out from $4 resistance. $4.45 is next major resistance.

ALQA ~ 23% @ EOD. Needs to hold the breakout about $1.10.

GEVO ~ 19% @ EOD. Can be a big run if it breaks past $0.45 but if it fades there will be a head and shoulder pattern in the 1hr chart.

ESNC ~ 16% @ EOD. Nice multi-day breakout at the $0.40 resistance, can run.


FIVN ~ 16% @ EOD. Higher priced than I like to trade by a well-known name and it could get media coverage from gamers outlets. Stock has been gaining since Nov. If it breaks the $11 range for new 52wk high it could run much more.

Paying the Stupid Tax $HERO $CBYL $MGT $GBSN $PRGN

Today was a big hit on the paper account. Partially due to FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), over trading, and failing to CUT LOSSES QUICKLY.

I had entered two trades yesterday $MGT & $CBYL at the EOD with the plan of selling into the AM runs. A decent plan right out of Tim's How To Make Millions dvd, but I failed to be awake for the market open and that stripped away my chances of exiting with some very nice profits.

Luckily I was able to cut losses quickly with $CBYL and did manage to take some profits on $MGT...

But then I made a big mistake. I forced a trade due to FOMO and jumped into $HERO with nearly a $8k position with the plan of riding momentum for 4% to 10% gains. It had other plans and faded on me to the $2.14 range and then went sideways. I failed to cut losses at this point and thought aka "HOPED" that the sideways action was just consolidation that would then push up into the EOD. It cracked instead and by the time I caught it and exited I was 12% under and paying a stupid tax of $1k. 

Dumb thing is that I had an exit order entered four or five times in the $2.14 range but would cancel them when the stock would bump to $2.15 or $2.16. Ugh.

$CBYL

$MGT

$HERO

But don't you worry, $HERO isn't all bad. TOS had shares to short even on paper and I got in a limit order to short 1k shares. I'm holding over night with the plan of covering in the AM. This has a lot of room to run down since the multi-day run started back at the $1.20 range.

I'm also holding a long position in $GBSN to sell into the AM. This had over 100% gains on the day and high volume. I think it can run more.

$PRGN touched the $1.10 level today and is still grinding down to the $1 mark. I think if it can crack that whole number the psychological effect and stop loss triggering will dump the stock back to the $0.25 starting point or lower if this holds the spike and drop patterns on the long term charts.

Happy Trading 



Tuesday, May 17, 2016

Swinging $MGT and $CBYL

I may be crazy for dip buying $MGT today with the goal of another run tomorrow because it does feel over-extended now. But so far the ticker seems to be holding its own and despite a pull back at the EOD it gained A/H. The position is a big one because I wanted to test trading with a larger amount of money. I understand that growing your account takes time and me jumping from the $1k positions I've been taking to a $10k is a bit extreme. But at some point I will be switching back to real money and there is a possibility that I may move some finances around to start back up with a larger account.

The benefits of having a larger account are huge, position sizing is bigger, commission slippage is less, no PDT rule, no Free Ride rule issues, etc.

Plus with trading a $10k position I can lower the % I'm aiming for which will drastically increase my odds and lower my risks.

With a $1k position I need to trade multiple times with goals of 10% to 20%+ because a gain of 3% or 4% is only $30 to $40, and when you subtract commissions of roughly $15,... growth is limited.

With a $10k position a 10% gain is $1k, even 3% and 4% gains (much easier to grab) will result in $300 and $400 wins... making the number of trades needed to supplement income and live off trading while growing my account, achievable and realistic.

I'm ranting...

I also placed a small position of 1000 shares on $CBYL for a swing, looking to sell into momentum tomorrow. It broke out of a multi-month level and cracked the $1 level. The possibility of it running to $1.20 or $1.50 is there.


Monday, May 16, 2016

Watch List for 05-17, Plus a Pump in Play

MGT ~ 72% @ EOD, double topped at $3.28, MAC-D neg crossover, AO red (look to short if it can break the $2.64 level. If it breakouts about $3.28 it could run much higher.

EBIO ~ 40% @ EOD, had a small breakout at $1.20, needs to crack the $1.25 before a gap to resistance at $1.50. Long if it can get past the $1.25, 4hr chart shows a spike and drop pattern, watch for possible short position if that pattern holds.

TWER ~ 38% @ EOD, multi day breakout at $0.28, could be a good momentum trade if it continues to climb, next resistance @ $0.50ish then $0.95 (Earnings)

AEGR ~ 33% @ EOD, potential breakout if it can crack $2.40 but overall chart is neg, lots of downward push

HERO ~ 21% @ EOD, potential breakout if it can crack $1.60 level. It already touched that level at slighting fell.

CVO ~ 17% @ EOD, momentum play, make sure it can stay above the $1.05 and $1 whole number to hold momentum.

CFMS ~ 14% @ EOD, potential short if the price can drop below $4.80. Daily and Wkly charts show a massive drop from $10 range to about $6 range, lots of downward push.

VLTC ~ 14% @ EOD, potential short if it can crack below $3.50 range. Price seems to be dumping from run up.

PGH ~ 13% @ EOD, look for new highs as this could continue to run 10% to 20% for a few more days. Next major resistance is $3.50ish but has had some strung downward push


LCLP ~ 18% @ EOD, pump and dump in play from OTCStockReview.com, “LCLP: Atlanta Capital Partners, LLC and OTCStockReview.com will receive $20,000 from LCLP for 180 days of advertising, branding, marketing, investor relations and social media services provided by Atlanta Capital Partners, LLC and OTCStockReview.com. Please read entire Atlanta Capital Partners, LLC's and OTCStockReview.com's Disclaimer for FULL Compensation Disclosures. Watch for fade and dump.

Bit of a Red Day, But Cut Losses $AVP $EBIO $GSAT

After seeing how bad my swings are effecting the position sizes that I can take on other trades I decided to close out $AVP with a loss of 7%. A few reasons that I closed out $AVP vs $PRGN. First, even though I'm likely right and this stock with dip back down and continue on its downward track, I clearly entered the short at the wrong time and have spent the entire ride in the red. It was even a nasty 30% loss at one point. Stupid and it broke the most important rule of cutting losses quickly. The other issue is what the added costs would be. Given that the extra fees would need to be added on for a short swing... this trade would not be realistic in my opinion.
I think a 7% loss it acceptable for such a big mistake.

Now on the other side of the coin is $PRGN which also is a short swing. I probably would have taken profits at this point to limit the fee issue, but the gains are strong here and I think this will break the $1 level pretty soon.

I made two other trades today, $EBIO and $GSAT, one at a small loss and the other at a small gain. I'm happy with both because I stuck to my plans and did well with cutting losses. $GSAT was an attempt at a dip buy with the goal of catching afternoon momentum. The plan and entry was pretty good but the momentum never followed. Cut losses for under 4%.


$EBIO was a buy shortly after a small breakout. My target was 4% to 8% gains and I was able to get just shy of the 4% goal. The trade was a very small position though because of being over extended in $AVP and $PRGN... hence the exit in $AVP.






Friday, May 13, 2016

Best Trade of the Week $CAS, Win w/ $CCXI Loss w/ $TROV

Maybe it's because today is Friday the 13th and a full moon, but something was aligned just right because I was able to absolutely nail a short play on $CAS for my best trade of the week. But before I go into the details of the trade I must give thanks to those who deserve it. I was alerted to the setup by a tweet from Hebrew Hammer @HammerTTrading and checked the chart to find that it was on a major downward trend. I saw that it was bottoming and was able to short into the bounce, which is a pattern right out of Tim's How to Make Millions dvd... So once again, thank you Tim :)

Trading in general is challenging and trading pennies is even more so... but when things start to click it feels amazing. Not just because you're like "yeah, fuck you market, now what???" but because you realized that true financial freedom is possible.

And for those doubters out there, yes this trade is only on paper, but very realistic. It was roughly a $1200 investment that netted 29% gains in about 2 hours. That's more than I currently make in an 8 hour shift at $22.75 an hour!

The fact that this is possible and the fact that my position size will increase over time means that a trade like this could easily go from a $360 gain in 2hrs to $3,600 gain in 2hrs and that repeated again and again is life changing. Period.



My other winning trade today was the last half of my position in $CCXI which I was able to close out for a gain of $56 @ 8.75%. Again, a small trade in position size but a respectable percent gainer.



Today wasn't all winners though. I had a small loss in $TROV this morning when I attempted to catch the uptrending momentum. I topped and faded so I cut losses quickly and got out. I was trading from my mobile at the time and don't have access to the MAC-D or AO indicators that I like to use, but when I checked the chart later I noticed that I cut losses before the MAC-D crossover and that makes me happy. Learning to cut losses quickly is key to being successful as a trader.




Thursday, May 12, 2016

$CCXI $PRGN

My short swing in $PRGN went green today as the fading continued. If the ticker stays in form with its long term chart it should keep fading and dip past the original price of $0.25 when the spike took place. I plan on holding for at least the crack of $1.

I entered a short position of 300 shares of $CCXI yesterday after seeing a double top forming in the daily charts. The ticker faded most of the day and ended on the 1st red day of their big run up. I decided to take half of the position off and hold the other 150 shares with an aim at an AM panic.


Tuesday, May 10, 2016

(HTMM) Video 7 Overview: Shorting the Non-Pumps Too!

Video seven was basically an extension to video six, which was heavy on shorting. Only this time Tim covered a little more than just "pump & dumps". He also talked about shorting stocks that aren't blatant pumps.

For starters Tim explained that swing trades can have more risk at first but can also open you up to larger gains, this is especially true for short swings because of the difficulty of location shares to short, often times in order to find shares you'll need to get in early and that can put you in the red at first.

At one point he spoke about a stock he shorted that had been halted in Canada before it was halted in the US market. I'm going to look into the Canadian market and see if their is a list of halted stocks that gets updated regularly. I'm curios if that would be a tricky way of finding short plays before they go red in the US... Not sure, just curious.

A few things to consider when you are looking to short a promoted stock:
  • Watch for paid promoters, promoters on social networks
  • Pumps can last days, weeks, even months before crashing
  • Wait for the technical breaks on the chart.
  • Take a look at the promotional budget (its in the disclaimers usually with $ amount written in words and not in numerical such as $1000 vs one thousand dollars)
  • Watch for the volume and price action to start its fade
  • Try and look at past pumps by the promoter, look for patterns
  • Try to get the first red day
  • watch for afternoon breakdowns
Tim has said this many times over the years, "It's okay to be wrong if you cut losses quickly and learn from your mistakes"

We should be not just learning what the patterns on the charts look like, but understand why that pattern is taking place.

You don't have to trade everyday. I know that for me because of the small account I'll be starting with I can afford to trade everyday. I plan on trading money on the best plays that I can find and others that I'm not as confident on but want to use as learning tools, I'll be paper trading.

Tim then went on to explain that you can also short non-pump plays, such as higher priced stocks that are over extended, getting hit by negative pr, etc. The percents you can net will be lower, but it can be much more predictable than the rare blatant pump and dump. I'm thinking the gains you should be aiming for realistically are 3% to 8%.

Watch for exposes, they spread quickly and can push price action. 

January Effect / Santa Claus Rally

Often times companies that are looking at a financial loss will sell off stocks near the end of the year for the tax benefits. This causes some stocks to become deflated and beaten down. The result is that in January you may see stocks spiking for no apparent reason. This can also take place early in December in what is call a Santa Claus Rally.

Tim will short in morning panics, sometimes holding a stock overnight with the ticker closes on red. He also like to short into afternoon fades which can be much more predictable but with lesser percentages.

Lastly, Tim said to follow your rules. Sometimes you may need to cover and try again, but always cut your losses. 




Monday, May 9, 2016

$CLDX $SYNC: Taking Small Profits to be Safe

I held $SYNC over the weekend with the idea that follow up news on their major contract win might get shared. No new news and the stock continued to fade from it's pre-market highs on 05-05-16. Rather than continue to swing with it still fading, I took the exit with a small gain.

I may look at trying to short this if it breaks the $3.00 level.




On Monday I decided to go long in $CLDX to try and capture some of the momentum from the day as well as be in a position for a nice breakout level at $3.96. I got in at $3.91 a share but only saw the ticker touch the underside of the level and turn into a double top. It looked like it wasn't going to continue any further gains so I got out.


Friday, May 6, 2016

Trading the Plan $ATTU

Ending a week with such a well executed trade plan motivates you to study even harder. I've had a few trades that went as well and every time it pumps me up because I can see the potential for financial freedom. The chart doesn't lie, the plan worked, and the ONLY thing that a trade like this needs for me to become financially free and to provide everything I've ever wanted for my family is money and the increase in position size, and that is something that can be increased over time as my money account grows.

But for now, I'm only trading in a paper account so that I can fine tune my skills and make trades like this with $ATTU a constant thing.

I hope you all have a great weekend, don't forget to study and get motivated!




Thursday, May 5, 2016

Morning News $AVP $RSYS $SYNC $PRGN

$AVP  Yahoo Finance

(Reuters) - Cosmetics maker Avon Products Inc (AVP.N) reported a 16 percent decline in quarterly sales as it struggled to boost demand in Brazil and China.
Net loss attributable to the company widened to $165.9 million, or 38 cents per share, in the first quarter ended March 31 from $147.3 million, or 33 cents per share, a year earlier.
Total revenue fell to $1.31 billion from $1.55 billion.
(Reporting by Yashaswini Swamynathan in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel)

Form 10-Q Filed 05-04-16

Major contract win with AT&T, up 165% pre-market.

Waiting for the fade or dump. Currently short 



Wednesday, May 4, 2016

Huge News for $SYNC Maybe Even Bigger Moves

Several articles and news alert popped up for $SYNC and their contract win with AT&T

Form 8-K

At the time of writing this blog post the A/H was up 134%

I think the potential for this to explode and go supernova is high. I've placed a limit order for the market open to try and grab a position if it spikes.

$RSYS Why I'm Long Over Night

I've really been trying to take from the How to Make Millions videos and apply that information to how I pick stocks to trade and how to trade. 

I think $RSYS is a good example of what type of stock to trade and how. First off, it was in the top big gainers for the day which prompted me to investigate a little more. According to articles on Yahoo Finance the company reported a loss of $3mil in the first quarter, but that it topped expectations per share by $0.02.

"HILLSBORO, Ore. (AP) _ RadiSys Corp. (RSYS) on Tuesday reported a loss of $3 million in its first quarter.
The Hillsboro, Oregon-based company said it had a loss of 8 cents per share. Earnings, adjusted for amortization costs and stock option expense, came to 5 cents per share.
The results topped Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of five analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for earnings of 3 cents per share."
That apparently translated to an earnings winner of sorts and the stock climbed over 12% in the day.
The other reason I liked this ticker was that on the technical you can see that it had a nice breakout from Feb 24th 2014 at the level of about $4.55 and that it was now accumulating at the next breakout level on the weekly chart of about the $5.00 to $5.10 range from July 29th 2013.

Should positive momentum continue and the new breakout takes place the next major resistance level is around the $6.50 range.

So with that said, tomorrow will tell if my plan was correct.


Tuesday, May 3, 2016

$PTX $ULTR $PRGN

My overnight trade with $ULTR turned out to be a big loss. I've ran into this before with other trades were my sleeping schedule makes it extremely difficult to be at the market open here on the Westcoast at 6:30am. I truly think that when I make the move to real money I am going to need to just stay up for the open and make my trade, then power nap before work etc. 

Even though I cut losses as quick as I could and now that I'm looking back at the chart and seeing the gap down, I think I wouldn't have done much better. 

I haven't had much luck with stocks under $1. The risk seems higher and I find myself getting burned more often than not.



Unfortunately the loss effected the way I traded my other overnight play on $PTX which was sitting on a little above 7% gains when I checked it. It was more of a knee jerk reaction and not truly thought out when I exited, but I took profits and then watched it climb to roughly $1.20 a share. I left a lot on the table with this one because I lost my appetite, but a 7% gain is still a nice gain.


I didn't like any of the percent gainers for the day and decided to sit out the Tue/Wed trade window. I did scale into my short position with $PRGN however because we saw a nice short squeeze today. There is no way that the stock will not crash soon. I can see it dropping to the $0.25 levels during this week. When the time comes this short play will be great. Only wish I was in real money with this one. 

Monday, May 2, 2016

(HTMM) Video 6 Overview: Knowing the End Game

Video 6 was so full of information that I had to go over it several times as I took notes. It was heavy on shorting and covered everything from what a short trade is to the $2.50 rule.

A few things that Tim touched on before diving into the business of shorting stocks was a tip on paying special attention to hot industries such as Ebola plays, Terrorism plays, Marijuana/vape plays, Cyber Security plays, etc. because they can see large spikes due to the extra public interest.

You need to be looking for both breakouts and news, not just one... it's a one, two, punch as he puts it.

Don't chase a stock when you don't have clear technical patterns to back up your positions because it can crash on you without warnings, basically don't trade because of vengeance or  FOMO (fear of missing out).

You should do your best to follow your rules, breaking them can be a slippery slope.

Tim then shared some of the scans/sites that he uses to find stocks:
  • Stocks to Trade software
  • Yahoo Finance
  • Tim's chat
  • Checking news for hot plays
Tim also mentioned setting up multiple watch lists to keep things easy to read and track, such as a top gainer list, short list, longer swing, etc.

Moves tend to gravitate towards whole numbers such as $1 or $2. when a technical breakout takes place at a whole number the result can have more power.

As for his information on shorting stocks, Tim explained that the concept is basically like a long trade only in reverse. Instead of buying low and selling high for a profit, you're buying the right to sell the stock at a lower rate and then taking the difference in price as a profit.

Sometimes shares are hard to find and you may not get the opportunity to short a stock.

Sometimes there is a SSR or short sell restriction that has been placed on a stock to try and prevent the stock from falling to fast. When this takes place and there are shares to short, you'll have to wait for an uptick in the stock price before you can get an order filled.

Other complications to take into account with short selling are margin calls, which is when your broker calls and says that you need to add money to your account. This usually takes place because of the $2.50 rule which basically means that for every share you short you must have $2.50 in collateral. That can add up quickly.

The risk in shorts can be much higher because there is no zero for the price to grind down to, while the stock can rise to any price, in theory anyways. Which is why you must always CUT LOSSES QUICKLY

A forced buy-in is also a negative that you must deal with from time to time, basically if you hold too long the broker can sell your shares at market price, which often times is not the best prices to do so.

Sometime this can spark a short squeeze, which is when the demand to buy is greater than it is to sell, forcing shorts out, and causing a spike in the stock's price.

This is sometimes seen on Fridays with traders who don't want to hold over the weekend.

Tim talked about ALFSS or Always Look for Shorts to Sell, because they can be hard to find, you need to be prepared to grab those you find.

While short selling is meant for a more advanced trader with an account large enough to make it worthwhile, there are a lot of added risks to consider as well... The trade off is that when you limit your shorts to outright scams, pump and dumps, or stocks like our recent $PRGN that shot up over 800%.... you're at a huge advantage because you know the end game. It is going to crash, usually hard, and often times it will fall to predictable chart technical areas of support and resistance.

One thing to also keep in mind when shorting is that because you can be at the mercy of the shares to short, you won't always get the prime entries and are likely to see losses that need to be held longer until they go green.

such as my paper trade of $PRGN that spent the first couple of days in the red while people banked on the way up.

Tim touched a little on pump and dumps and explained that you can make money on the way up, but that it is riskier that long plays on contract winners and earning winners because you don't know when it will switch to a dump and when it does you may have a very difficult time selling your position. A strong reason that Tim doesn't like using stop losses.

Also, the pump is at risk of getting halted, and stocks that get halted often with drop 50% as soon as it is opened again.

You need to remember that promotions are never meant to be permanent and the company doesn't expect the price to stay elevated. The promoter's job is to raise awareness and drive the stock's price higher so that the company can sell shares into the uptrend for a profit... sometimes to raise funding, sometimes for salary, sometimes for less legal reasons. The point being that if you remember this and drill it into your little head... You know the end game.

Often times you'll see a pump become more volatile near the end as they try and get the ticker on the scanners of other traders. You'll also see a fading volume as the selling of shares into the pump slows. 

Tim talked about one last consideration with shorting and that was on reserving shares to short. Brokers will charge a fee to do so, but because shares are usually hard to find and only available early in the morning, it can be worth the added fee to reserve shares over night, You also get charged the fee regardless of it you trade it or not, so make sure you really want to trade the stock before requesting reserved shares to short.

Pumps always crash, the chart may be a little different, the timing may be different, but the result is always the same.... again, you know the end game.